Want Proof, Heres Proof
No, this is not proof of who shot Kennedy but proof that real live inflation is higher than the data suggests.
I usually try not to get too far into the weeds on things as you well know. I throw ideas out there, opinions and I let the readers do the work if they actually care enough. However, I decided to do the work to prove a point about inflation and what I did was get some receipts for items that I purchased last year at Fresh Direct and at Baldour Food Services and the results were a little mixed but the end result was that I clearly paid more money than last year.
To give you a little background, during the height of the pandemic, I, like millions of others chose to do shopping on line for food and sundries. I opened an account with a company in the metropolitan area called Baldour Fine Foods, and with Fresh Direct. If you have never heard of Fresh Direct, they started selling food, ordered online and shipped from one of their warehouses in the Northeast. I don’t know if they went Nationwide but they should have last year. Now the field is crowded and they missed that opportunity. But I digress.
Back to my orders. I ordered a fairly substantial amount of food several times during 2020, just to be stocked and ready and also to share with family, and then tried to reorder the same exact items this week.
Net result, my basket was 11% higher. With chicken and meat accounting for the biggest increases. Staples like milk, orange juice and eggs were pretty much the same. Bread was up 20% and flour was up 25%. Canned items all had increases from 5-12%. The sundries part of my order was actually a real mixed bag, shampoo(I didn’t order but had it in my basket) was up 30%. Toilet paper was up 5%, Paper towels were up 11%.
Get the point? Inflation on the ground is up more than 6.2% and even with that inflation number, the Administration hasn’t taken it seriously. To listen to the President, you would think that this is a blip in the numbers and things will get back to a more manageable core inflation number sooner, rather than later. He also believes that with the signing of this Infrastructure Bill yesterday and potentially signing the next round of government largess in December, this will slow and stop the upward spiral of prices. Huh?
As is my tradition, I will look at this simplistically. When the Federal Government infuses the economy with an oversupply of cash, inflation is the primary result. All the other benefits will be mitigated because only certain sectors of the economy will benefit but the whole economy will feel the effects of increased money supply. In a recession with little to no inflation, the benefits are reversed.
The way I understand his logic (I know, thats dumb to even try) is that with better roads and bridges and tunnels, the cost of shipping will go down. Honestly, that might be one of the dumbest explanations I have ever heard and here is why;
Correct me if you think my logic is off base. In 2017-2019 the core inflation rate was 2.2% overall, the bridges and roads and tunnels were pretty much in the same shape as they are in now. However, the inflation rate is now +6.2% with those same roads. The poor shape of our roads has not caused one bit of inflation so how will fixing them reduce inflation? Trucks will get to their location faster? Really? Sorry, that bit of stupidity doesn’t wash.
Yes, the supply/demand dynamic in this country is out of whack and I am not 100% sure that this is all Covid related. In April of 2020, things were messed up. The Worlds pipelines were all screwed up and Walmarts greatest achievement (Or was it Toyotas?) basically put everyone in an unbalanced place. “Just In Time Inventory Control” doomed many businesses to a game of wake up, catch up or give up.
We are now into this and they have had over a year to figure it out and yet, the smartest logistical minds in the World still can’t get it right.
They still can’t figure out how to deal with Covid 19 either. Vaccinations, masks, boosters. The smartest people in the World still after 20 months have just not figured it out.
I am no conspiracy theorist but I do think there is a bigger picture we are not seeing and the picture has higher prices, more controlled purchasing and a not so sound health component.
The smartest people in the World have failed.