Understanding Pressure Points
Considering where we are right now as far as Russia and The Ukraine, I think it’s important to understand what motivates both sides.
From Vladimir Putin’s side we can only venture a guess because he seems to be a step or two ahead of the Western powers that need to confront him. No expert on Russia and the miasma of intrigue that goes on in the Kremlin, really has any idea what Putin’s end game is.
Is it to test the West’s willingness to stand up to him and see how far he can push the NATO members? Is it his belief that his legacy will be that of reuniting the USSR since that was such a success? Is it just plain megalomania and the guy still thinks that Russia is a superpower and that Mother Russia should not be taken lightly? Who knows. my guess is he wants to push the West and see what the push back will be. Maybe chomp off another piece of The Ukraine and add it to his sorry state of satellites. The West won’t care.
Testing American will is another matter and Putin most likely feels that he is going up against an adversary (even if indirectly) that has no backbone and while this adversary may have the greatest military force on the planet, it’s commander in chief may not be up to this game of wills that Putin is playing. Looking at Afghanistan and the exit might have sparked something in Putin. They couldn’t manage a simple pull out without mucking it up, how are they going to manage dealing with an invasion in a non allied country?
There is a bit of irony in that the Russians were in Afghanistan way before us and they failed to achieve anything other than the loss of over 15,000 Russian troops and multiple billions of dollars that they didn’t have, so while we look like idiots with our withdrawal, they didn’t look much better with theirs but that, in Putins eyes, is ancient history.
The sanctions that the Americans and the British are calling for might work however and that would be an interesting twist in all of this. What the Americans and British are doing is putting pressure on the oligarchs that they know have vested interest in both countries. The pressure may not seem like much now but as the financial pipeline that keeps these men (yes, they are all men) flush with cash dries up, pressure will mount from an unexpected source, inside Putin’s inner circle. While Putin might seem to have this unlimited power inside the Kremlin, I do believe American, British and French Intelligence have concluded that these oligarchs have some say in policy matters, especially ones that effect them directly.
The oligarchs that got filthy rich under Putin want to stay that way and these targeted sanctions are meant to change that. I am not going to go into each and every name on that list but let’s just say that they control a vast amount of the wealth in Russia and without their backing, Putin would still be some Party wannabe in St Petersburg. Do not underestimate the power these men control and when the pressure on their wealth gets too much, something will crack.
What everyone thinks is that sanctions will impact the general population in Russia and they will but Putin could care less about the man or woman on the street. Power is addictive and he is totally addicted and that addiction changes perspective. The longer the sanctions go on, the more and more people will be affected and dissatisfaction (which runs rampant in Russia without sanctions) will only get worse and if history is any guide, things can and do change in Russia quickly, so I believe Putin will get the message at some point and end his visions of the USSR coming back together.
The next few weeks will be tricky and the pressure will mount in the US for more than just sanctions but it is very clear that the Biden Administration does not want to get into any sort of military confrontation with Russia. Putting American lives at stake in that part of the World won’t sit well with many Americans but there is a bigger picture in all this and another adversary is watching very closely.