The Final Countdown
No, this is not a column on possibly the worst song ever written, it’s about the countdown to the mid-term elections. We are four weeks away and I will be honest here, I have no clue which way things will go.
You can go online and look for various polls that have come out and it’s a veritable mixed bag. Rely on those polls at your own peril. I am going to say that I think most polls are right about 50% of the time. Which, if you know odds, is not really all that good. With that in mind, I don’t really believe in any of them. Just think about Trump in 2016 and you will know how wrong they can be.
Taking the polls out of the equation, what do we have? The strong will stay strong (New York, California, Illinois and so on. Solid blue states will remain so. Red states as well. It’s those toss up states that has leaders of both parties staying up at night.
Pennsylvania will be one of the first to go. Fetterman is a weak candidate and Dr. Oz is not much better. Blue collar vs white collar perhaps? The Keystone state may hold the keys (sorry) for the rest of the election. I hate to bring up polls but most show Fetterman and Dr Oz neck and neck so this election will bear watching because I think it will be an indication of the mood in this country.
Another interesting race is in Georgia. Warnock versus Walker. Georgia is a unique state in that on Monday it leans red and on Wednesday it leans blue. You never really know who is going to win because the state( which traditionally voted Republican) always seems to be a tossup. If the last Presidential election showed anything (along with the Governors race) this state is always up for grabs. The interesting thing is that Senator Warnock is a solid Democratic candidate. Very well liked in his home state and well respected on Capital Hill. Herschel Walker is also a very well respected member of the black community and he is a legend to every UGA alumni. He has run into some difficulty and that may be his undoing but he is a strong candidate as well. Another state to keep a close eye on.
The closest race I believe will be Ohio. Vance and Ryan are running neck and neck and Ohio, another traditional Republican state has also become a lot more wide open. Of all the races I think this is the one that truly test the mettle of the Democratic Party. Vance has been tearing Ryan apart for voting for the various spending packages and the damage they have done to the economy. If people feel enough is enough in Washington, Vance should win. Having heard Vance speak on numerous occasions I think he might be a little rough around the edges but he is a solid conservative and Ryan is a solid Biden Democrat. Could this be an indication of the damage Biden has done to his party?
The bottom line to these campaigns and every other campaign across the country is voter turnout. Can a Republican get apathetic supporters to the voting booth? Can the Democratic base show consistency in their voter turnout?
It really is going to be hard to say what is going to happen because we have an economy that has had some hits and a lot of misses, so the “Vote with your wallet” maxim has a very muddled path. Inflation is still a big issue and the potential recession we are looking at could be a long one. Yet, we have low unemployment and the job market is still holding its own.
One thing I find completely insane is the fact that in the states were crime and high taxes are sapping the life out of communities, the Democrats hold a dominant position. How is it possible that the legislatures and leadership in this dying states remain in place? I just don’t get it. If you suck and you have basically ruined your state, how do you get reelected or how does anyone in your party get reelected? It makes zero sense to me.