Small Battles Turn Into Bigger Wars
Looking back over history, I think you will find that some of the biggest wars started out with a small skirmish or an isolated war between two small countries.
World War I didn’t start with the assassination of some Duke from Austria. It was started before hand as The Ottoman Empire was having trouble keeping it’s vassal states in line. Their were all sorts of agreements between the Ottomans, The Serbs, Bulgaria and the Austria Hungary empire. Those agreements were being broken all the time. The place was boiling for years and there were isolated battles all over the region. It escalated when the major players at the time took sides. The Germans, always looking for a good fight stepped in and then France and Britain got involved and “The Great War” was underway.
Look back over the last hundred years or so and you will see, it starts with two countries duking it out and then the big fellas step in. Russia, The United States, China to some extent (in Vietnam and in Korea).
It’s all about proxies. You go fight ‘em, I’ll back you up, as long as my people don’t get involved directly, we are all good.
Rarely, do any of the big players get directly involved initially.
Except now.
Russia has taken that bold step by invading Ukraine. Ukraine will fight as NATO’s proxy until their supply of soldiers runs out. The United States has backed Ukraine so far and the numbers are staggering. Over 100 billion dollars in “Aid”. Not sure exactly what “Aid” we are sending them other than military equipment but I do believe that some of the American aid is dollars to help support the Government and keep those soldiers fed and paid. In any event, it’s a huge draw and there does not seem to be an end to it.
The Russians have bitched and moaned about the Ukranians using US and British intelligence and scoring some major hits in Mother Russia. Them’s the breaks, leadership wants war, sometimes that war will come home to roost. Putin has a solid strategy at the cost of thousands of lives. Got to hand it to him, he has no soul and has no conscious. The Russians will fight till NATO runs out of weapons and patience and they will eventually leave the Ukranians on their own with very limited support. A dictator can do that. Sacrifice a hundred thousand lives to prove something.
This is a half proxy war. Until it isn’t.
A true proxy war is happening in Gaza and the whole Middle East is on the brink of getting involved.
Saying that Israel is a proxy for the US or Britain or France doesn’t really give the Israeli’s the true credit they deserve. The IDF is probably the most capable fighting force on Earth and trust me, they would rather live in a time and place where that was not needed but when you are surrounded by fanatics that only want to see your country destroyed, you do what you have to do. For the sake of argument though, you could look at this as a potential proxy war.
The Israeli’s have major support from the United States, Britain and France and the Hamas/Hezbollah miasma is backed by Iran directly and strangely enough, China.
This is the kicker here. The Chinese have been buying Iranian oil for years. They have been supplying the Iranians with advanced nuclear technology. They send arms to Iran which in turn, smuggles those arms to the Hamas Terrorists.
It is obvious so far that the Chinese are not sending their top of the line military equipment because the IDF and the Iron Dome seem to have neutralized whatever Iran has sent. Is it possible that Chinese military technology is not as good as we think? I am sure US Military officials are thinking the same thing.
If I remember correctly, prior to the US invasion of Iraq, all we heard in the US was how deadly a force the Iraqi Republican Guard was. I remember one the anchors saying that this was going to be a long and deadly fight since Iraq had the most formidable army in the Middle East. Yeah, OK. That whole thing did not last long and it ended up screwing us worse in the end because Iraq actually hated Iran more than we did. After the fall of Saddam Hussein there was a huge hole in leadership. The US had troops in Iraq for another 7 years trying to help the country create some sort of viable leadership. When we finally left, Iran and their various terrorist outfits basically took over the country.
What this will boil down to is if Israel decides to take the fight to Iran. Then what?
The Biden Administration will be put in a position they truly are not capable of handling. Joe Biden goes to Michigan and basically raises the Palestinian flag to get votes and comes back to Washington and stumbles with the President of Iraq. His leadership in times of major duress might be that proverbial last nail in this administration’s coffin.
Will the administration back Israel 100% if it decides to take Iran on? Will Israel be able to fight on two possible fronts without US intervention? Will the Chinese send Iran some of the good stuff or were those cruise missiles The Good Stuff”?
Military technology advances at light speed during real live confrontations. The American Military works wonders when it is pressed and are they looking for an excuse to ramp stuff up again in the Middle East? I don’t know but what I do know is that we have an administration that has the spine of overcooked spaghetti. Telling Iran “Don’t” when asked his response to Iran if they decide to escalate. Huh? Don’t? Are you kidding me?
Reminds me of Obama’s “Red Line in the Sand” regarding Russia and Syria. How did that go?
We can argue about, would any of this have happening under a Trump Administration? I lean towards no because if the past is any indication, there was none of this crap when Donald Trump was President. Was that because he had a backbone and wasn’t going to sit back and watch allies get peppered? Or was it because our enemies had no clue what Donald Trump was going to do? Sometimes the fear of a crazy, unpredictable leader is a stronger deterrent than a pragmatic one.