Ramblin' Man
It’s the Tuesday after Labor Day weekend. Kids are on the bus or attending classes at the U. Ugh, did I just give a shout out to the halfway house at the University of Miami? Forgive me. August is over and we look forward to the fall and the holidays. I am ok with it. Here in the Northeast we really have nothing to complain about as far as the weather has been concerned. Climate change missed us this year. Funny how that happens sometimes.
It’s also the last third of the year. It’s time to look at the present state of the market and where we might be going for the next four months. As I have already said, September is usually a pretty tough month. Historically I believe it is the worst month for the markets and if you need finite data, pay the 30 bucks for the Stock Trader’s Almanac or subscribe. There are so many interesting little tidbits in that book, you will drop your 2,600 dollar a month Bloomberg machine and just swim in it’s esoterica.
Speaking of esoterica, I finally made the plunge into ChatGPT. You know that funky little Artificial Intelligence program that anyone can download and use, endlessly. I downloaded the free version just to take it for a spin. I am very impressed. Very.
I truly believe that the Internet is many things. One of them is that is probably the greatest creation for wasting time ever invented Nothing comes close. You can do a deep dive into making donuts at home and end up on YouTube watching the video for “Sympathy For The Devil” for 3,500th time. You dive in and you may not come out for an hour or a day. It is a rabbit hole of never ending proportions. Yet, I wake up at 6:25am every morning and I read stuff before I get out bed at 7:35am. That is an hour and five minutes where I am on my phone reading CNN’s Five Things or some Axios article or perhaps something from The Athletic. Is it good for me? I don’t really know. I do like to be a little better informed but does it change my life. No. Not really. However there is one habit I have gotten into and I don’t mind sharing. I search for funny videos on Instagram. I love watching stupid people do stupid things and making me laugh before I get up in the morning. Great way to start the day. Saying my gratitudes and laughing while I figure out breakfast and take my Cane Corso, Bruno out for his early patrols.
Now I have another rabbit hole to go down, ChatGPT. So far, and it’s been two days, I have found it incredibly fast with somewhat accurate information. I used it to see the Worlds largest populations and the info was from 2021. I just did quick questions and it came back with reasonably accurate answers and I did ask the thing some opinions and it prefaced everyone of them with some disclaimer, which is ok because I was asking a computer an opinion. I like it very much and unfortunately for Wikipedia, I probably will do more searches on it than the silver standard of research.
I can see multiple problems with this tool but like anything else, it will get better over time and maybe I am a fool but I am ok with the present usage of it.
I highly doubt that that machine learning will ever be able to learn how I write. I write in a syntax that closely resembles how I think and how I actually speak. Some people would rather read a professional journalist or someone who actually paid attention in English Comp in college and that’s fine, my writing is not for everyone and over the last few months I have been culling the subscribers that have not had the time nor inclination to read even one of my columns. Bye Bye Now.
To the hearty souls that are left, all I can say is Thank You!
Back to the mundane.
Given the information from the JOBS report last Friday, my assumption is the Fed will sit tight for at least September. Things are trending where they want things to trend and the pain is minimal at best. Markets should continue over the next four months to realize and capitalize on this pretty strong (but not too strong) economic environment. Despite the cannon shots of cash that Washington has been throwing around, inflation is moving in the right direction and job growth is positive enough to keep consumers spending. This is as solid as I have seen it in maybe three years.
The administration’s wishlist includes rebuilding the manufacturing sector with lavish spending on certain sectors of the economy. Kill me, but I don’t see that as all bad. Just 75% bad. That’s 25% that actually will be effective and will create industries that can help move the US economy well into the 21st Century without China’s involvement and may just be the one lasting positive thing the Biden administration accomplished.
Wishful thinking perhaps and I am trying to be that half full glass type of optimist here but I do think we have a shot at repatriating some manufacturing to US shores. The problem is not ideas or will. The problem is getting people to work in highly specialized areas that this new manufacturing will require. Getting a fairly smart, diverse group of young people to choose tool and die instead of the U (Jeez, help me) will be formidable. Sure there will always be men and women that are not made up for college or can not afford the exorbitant tuitions and they will choose to go work at Intel’s plant in Ohio making 70 dollars an hour but will there be enough of them?
For a long time I have felt that maybe college is not the way to go for a lot of kids. The dropout rate hovers around 40%. That is 40% of the student who enroll in college do not finish their course work and drop out. Obviously, there are dozens of mitigating factors but I imagine a large majority can’t afford it and even with all the financial aid out there, they still take on a burden that will last for years. One other reason might be, that that person is just not college material.
Maybe high schools should present things differently to students. Learn your basics and a few things that will make you a more well rounded person but keep the focus on providing opportunities to go int a trade. There is absolutely nothing wrong with becoming a mechanic or an electrician. I have a lot of friends who have become succesful in their trades and have lived a very happy full life.
I do get it however. I live on Long Island which has some of the highest real estate taxes in the US. Most of that money goes to fund the public schools locally. There are some great schools on Long Island for sure but at what cost? The School boards point proudly to the number of children that get into certain schools and that is why you pay those taxes. Your child’s education is the most important thing in the World and we will take every penny you earn to give them the best education on Earth. Ugh, yeah, ok. No high school on Long Island or anywhere for that matter wants to advertise, “We have the best plumbers and HVAC student in the State”. Yet, those kids end up earning more with those skills than some Philosophy major from Dartmouth.
The skilled craftsman is what we should be churning out. Make sure they can read at 12th grade level and write accordingly but let’s start thinking of ways to make this country actually work again.
My Father was old school. he wanted his three kids to have a college education. It was his mantra. Like everyone from that generation (still the greatest even as there are less and less of them) he wanted his kids to do better than he did. When I once told him I was joining the Navy, he almost had a heart attack. Granted I may have had too much Jack Daniels that night, I got the message. I am glad I did because my 4 1/2 years of college was truly a great experience and I could never duplicate it but the World has changed. There still is a need for college educated people, there always will be but why push those that are not ready or capable?
One last aside. I think the Isrealis do it right. After college, you do two years of service to your country. You come out of the service with a sense of pride in your country, maturity and most likely a skill you can use as well. The dropout rate in Israelis is 11%.