I Was Wrong
Yikes! What person likes saying that but it is true.
Over the course of the last few years I have been right about a lot of things but occasionally I get something wrong.
I think as I have gotten older, I have found it easier to admit I may be wrong about something. Comes with maturity I guess and I have finally matured.
I was dead wrong about Vladimir Putin. I felt that with the sanctions and with the oligarchs getting hassled Worldwide, Putin’s days were numbered. He wouldn’t make it through 2022. Surprise, surprise, this guy is still there and his power is still pretty solid.
As we roll towards the one year anniversary I think it’s time to reassess where we are.
The Ukrainians have shown more fight than anyone ever expected. The United States has done a very credible job supplying the Ukrainians with the means to fight and the Russians have proven to be a lot less formidable than once thought.
Everyone is learning something here. We are learning how badly prepared the Russian military is. We have learned a lot about a people that refuse to give in to a dictator, not of their own doing. The Russians have seen first hand how badly they were prepared for a real live war. The Chinese are learning to. The Chinese, I am afraid are the ones who will benefit from this the most.
The Chinese will gather more intelligence without spilling one ounce of blood. They see tactics, see military advancements in action. They will use this intel to determine the who, what, where and when of their own ambitions and then it will be “game on”.
This war is becoming a sewer drain. Lives lost, cities destroyed, money spent for what? The Russians at some point, will eventually lose. They will suffered possibly 200,000 casualties. For what? It will be like Afghanistan all over again.
Western forces over the decades have fought in skirmishes, battles and wars and each and every time, lives were lost, intelligence was gained. Western nations spend billions every year on new advancements and every time a battle of war breaks out, these advancements are tested and retested. The advancements continue and tactics are developed and a better fighting force usually emerges.
Not the Russians. They are mired in 1995 military gear and tactics and their training is insufficient for todays battlefields. It reminds me a little of the Korea War.
North Korea was getting beaten badly and the only hope they had was China. The Chinese sent wave after wave of soldiers into battle. Thousand of Chinese soldiers were slaughtered yet the shear numbers helped them prevail. Sending one and half million soldiers will do that. The cost in lives was secondary to the ground they gained.
That’s what Russia is doing. A smaller scale perhaps but they are sending thousands of ill prepared troops against battle-hardened soldiers protecting their country. The only thing that is making a major impact for the Russians is the bombing of innocent civilians throughout the eastern portion of the country.
At some point, something will have to give.
That is the only way this ends and I have no idea who will blink first. My gut tells me the Russians but I was wrong about Putin, I could be wrong about this as well.
What I was right about was the impact that this would have on the World economy. Short term speculation pushed the price of oil into rarefied air but that came back to reality shortly after. That block-aid of wheat from Ukraine also retreated into footnote territory as well. Global supply adjusted as it always does.
Markets spent about an hour digesting the invasion and the war and money flowed to where money usually flows when war breaks out, US Defense stocks. The pressure on those stocks is still there as the US and NATO supplies and resupplies Ukraine with ammunition, rockets, and technology.
I brought up China before and while they are learning a lot from the war in Ukraine I think we are too. NATO and the United States have pretty much been on the same page here and the Chinese have noticed. The Chinese have also noticed that the US has been doing a pretty good job of solidifying alliances in the Pacific region as well. However, our naval capability in the region is mediocre at best and even with the production of 15 new ships and 4 new nuclear subs, we are not at the level we may need to be to stop a brand new Chinese navy right now. What does that mean? Simply put, the Chinese, if they were to act, would have to act while the balance of power in the Pacific is in their favor. Wait 4 years and things will be a lot different so I would not be surprised if the Chinese didn’t make a move towards Taiwan this year or next.
Critics will argue that the Chinese won’t want to risk the hundreds of billions of dollars of trade with the West for some unification project of Xi Jiping.
Let’s be honest here for a second. America is so dependent of Chinese products and their low cost, I am pretty sure very little would change if China invaded Taiwan and the Biden Administration tried to put sanctions in place. He would sign executive orders banning the importation of individual industries that would have little impact on China and make things a little more expensive at home.
An invasion of that sort should wreck the World economy but China doesn’t believe it will come to that because they believe the West is weak and the West needs what China produces and I am afraid they are probably right.