Typically, the Midterms don’t garner all that much attention. Usually, it is just more of the same. Same Senators get reelected. Same Representatives in the House get reelected. Couple of upsets here and there and we move on.
This year is obviously very different.We have a nation that is divided and each side wants their voice heard. Each side wants to forward their agenda, no matter how stupid or destructive it might be. Each side is very, very vocal.
This division in our country started at the top. Going to say it might be during Bush”s second term or was it during the beginning of Obama’s first term? Not really sure but it happened somewhere during that time. Democrats despised George W for a multitude of reasons. I personally liked him very much. He was not by any stretch of the imagination a great President but he certainly wasn’t the worst. He was the right person for the time after 9/11. Things fell apart after that and he probably will never be forgiven for some of the horrendous decisions he made. I will just say, that those may have turned out badly, most Presidents would have done pretty much the same. Eh, maybe not Obama. A man elected with such promise and hope only to be short-circuited by his own huge ego. Eight years of nothing and then Obamacare, noble idea that just proved that the US Government is only good at a few things, healthcare is not one of them. The division grew and I won’t blame it on racism like a lot of people. Being black, white or brown makes no difference when you fail at one of the most important jobs any sitting President has, compromise. His ego got in the way of it for eight years. Donald Trump furthered the division along quickly. You either loved him or truly hated him. No middle ground. He was not a unifying force at all.
Then we have Joe Biden. Promises to bring America together again. To unify this great land we call America, or some such nonsense. He had two things going against him from the very beginning. One, Donald Trump and his loyal followers. Two, he is a spineless leader who basically sold his supposedly moderate soul to the progressive left and never knew he lost it. You can’t unify a nation when you follow a path that continually does damage to that nation. The people will end up hating you. The people will end up, under our system, making it next to impossible for you to mess anything up any further.
Yes, we are still divided. Tearing off a piece of Democrat power will not bring us closer together but it will stymie some of the destructive policies we have seen in the last two years.
Trust me, I don’t think the candidates the Republicans have on the ballot are all that much better but when you have a see saw and the kid weighs 105 lbs and you weigh 90 lbs you don’t care if that 16 lbs is gold or horse manure, you want to win.
It’s Monday before the Midterms and I am of the firm belief that whatever the outcome, it won’t affect the markets in the longer term. A strong case can be made for the opposite for sure but while this election season has been so widely overexposed, it will actually mean little. Generally, any election, has a very short life span as far as markets go. The economy will race, stall or chug depending on about three hundred factors and on the list of importance control of Congress is near the bottom. A split house will fail to do anything positive for the economy and if your a half full half empty type of person, it will fail to do anything negative as well. The market will be on its own. To deal with inflation. To deal with higher interest rates. To deal with geopolitical risks. To deal with whatever a market deals with everyday, year after year.
True, Republican control of one or both houses can try and implement any number of things to try and unwind what the Biden Administration has done but have a one seat majority in the Senate or possibly 10 seats in the House will not make much difference if the President overrides or vetos future legislation.
So, without making a bold prediction, I do think the Republicans will take back one of the Houses of Congress. They will basically put the kibosh on anything that President Biden brings to that chamber and he will be politically neutered. Strong words for sure but cutting some or all of the puppet strings that control our President will be the the only way to change course for a ship that was headed for a very large iceberg. Oh wait, according to climate change activists, there won’t be any more icebergs because they will all have melted in the next 36 months.
Very good and to finish off with the iceberg analogy, Priceless;)