A Real China Syndrome
This Substack has nothing to do with the core of some over heated reactor burrowing through the Earth and popping up in the Forbidden City. It’s more about a very real situation that is playing out in the South China Sea and the Straights of Taiwan.
The CCP in Beijing has made it a priority that at some point in time in the near future, Taiwan will again be a part of China. They have become more aggressive in military manuevers in the Taiwan Straights and in the South China Sea and it is pretty clear, they aren’t just saber rattling this time.
From what I have read recently, the Chinese are much closer to a confrontation with Taiwan than at any time in the recent past. They have amassed warships and missile batteries on the mainland aimed directly at Taiwanese military installations. It’s only a matter of time before something happens and as the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Party Congress approaches, Supreme leader Xi Junping may have to do something big to rally the party.
Why does a man that wields as much power as Xi have to do anything you ask? Well, as strong as Xi’s hold on power is, China is experiencing multiple situations that some feel may be Xi’s fault. The economy is delicately negotiating several huge debt situations in regards to that booming real estate economy we saw five years ago. The country is dealing with rolling blackouts due to several factors, the least of which is their (Xi’s) directive to embargo coal from Australia. The country is also dealing with meat shortages and the population isn’t totally thrilled with the way the CCP has managed any of these debacles.
Xi may need to get a boost and what better way to get a boost at home is start a war somewhere under the guise of reunification. While Taiwan has a solid military and abundant technology, they probably wouldn’t last very long against such overwhelming odds.
Another factor that may prompt some sort of military action is that Taiwan’s friends may come to its aid but its biggest ally, The United States, is led by a President with little backbone or courage.
Should this scenario play out, the United States should do everything possible to quickly and effectively mitigate the threat. That is by diplomatic power, economic power and of course, military power but honestly, I don’t think the administration has the strength or resolve to do all three.
Diplomacy is the easiest and the least effective of course, because it almost always has to be backed up by the next two.
Economic sanctions could be an option but it would impact the US just as much as China and the global impact could be devastating.
So, that leaves the military option and that is something that in years past, would definitely cause concern for an opponent but now, after Afghanistan, I am not so sure.
We still have the greatest military force on Earth but the Chinese have spent aggressively to build up their Navy and Air Force. They have always had a standing army of over three million soldiers so their capabilities overall, are impressive.
That should not deter the administration from doing what is right and what is right is to help a strong democracy resist the challenge from a dictatorship 60 miles across a channel.
I really try not to make predictions about geopolitical events. Number one, I really don’t know enough to do it and number two, it is such a complex situation that it really is next to impossible to know what is going to happen but I will say that I do think that the Chinese will, at some point, start some sort of military confrontation with Taiwan. The end goal might be buried somewhere in Beijing but I do think that Xi’s hands will be all over this for more than Nationalistic reasons, politically he needs it as well, regardless of how powerful he seems.